tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post4654258399929378627..comments2023-10-11T09:06:30.060-07:00Comments on Douglas L. Campbell: What's wrong with the US economy? A theory, in one blog post Doug Campbell http://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-15063643116421941332017-08-19T12:24:26.116-07:002017-08-19T12:24:26.116-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.max williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11172994088362225355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-87733444285575228852017-07-21T02:47:55.866-07:002017-07-21T02:47:55.866-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Mrs CYNTHIA CORVINhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12201686878866741973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-34663378518440417942017-07-04T15:08:10.568-07:002017-07-04T15:08:10.568-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Credit Loan Solutionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04560862271536746225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-63803009591129195182017-03-07T07:17:52.699-08:002017-03-07T07:17:52.699-08:00Short rates have been basically zero for a long ti...Short rates have been basically zero for a long time and federal deficits have been falling but still high. I agree we could have done better but problems were great.Doug Korty dougkorty@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917776988908917362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-24196507617136213792017-03-06T13:14:36.453-08:002017-03-06T13:14:36.453-08:00details on the specific deflators for each time of...details on the specific deflators for each time of manufacturing output can be found in the NIPA handbook:<br />https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/allchapters.pdf<br />generally, you're looking at component producer price indexes for finished, intermediate and raw goods, depending on stage of production..rjshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-50455571264109131022017-03-06T09:39:35.319-08:002017-03-06T09:39:35.319-08:00Well, I don't think the problems were impossib...Well, I don't think the problems were impossible to overcome. The Fed actually shrank its balance sheet in 2009. In 2010, it raised the discount rate. The Obama stimulus, net of the AMT patch, and savage state and local Austerity, was pretty close to zero. I don't see why we couldn't have done better than that. Doug Campbell https://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-55569357100659315612017-03-06T09:29:19.648-08:002017-03-06T09:29:19.648-08:00Could it be that the problems were just too great ...Could it be that the problems were just too great rather than the policy was not enough. Too much debt etc. Distribution of income too skewed.Doug Korty dougkorty@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917776988908917362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-47495630659621258762017-03-06T09:25:56.680-08:002017-03-06T09:25:56.680-08:00Good thought. The graph using per capita GDP looks...Good thought. The graph using per capita GDP looks similar. Perhaps now we're 20% below trend instead of 25%. And we were only 2-3% off of trend as of 2007. But that was despite a housing bubble, so I don't think it changes the picture. While GDP per capita is probably better to use, it's also a bit endogenous. Severe recessions cause slower population growth, after all, although in this case, so did policy changes after 9/11.Doug Campbell https://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-17380200715971696382017-03-06T09:02:14.273-08:002017-03-06T09:02:14.273-08:00After 2008, I think the biggest factor was the Fed...After 2008, I think the biggest factor was the Fed not doing enough -- "self-induced" paralysis. Fiscal policy also could have been better. Trade factors were my explanation for why the economy was relatively weak in 2007 despite the housing bubble. Ben Bernanke has also pushed this argument.Doug Campbell https://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-90588757440602970452017-03-06T08:52:49.225-08:002017-03-06T08:52:49.225-08:00I am not sure why you think the rapid decline afte...I am not sure why you think the rapid decline after 2008 in real GDP is due to trade factors (what is your evidence for that) rather than factors related to the financial crisis and housing collapse and decline in investment. Krugman attributes a lot of the decline to low government spending also.Doug Korty dougkorty@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917776988908917362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-61319506260800193402017-03-06T07:52:03.385-08:002017-03-06T07:52:03.385-08:00Why not analysis with GDP/capita?Why not analysis with GDP/capita?otohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18424046613328798376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-47944333227106794052017-03-05T04:30:12.341-08:002017-03-05T04:30:12.341-08:00"With tightening, it gets more difficult.&quo..."With tightening, it gets more difficult." Agreed. Too bad that Yellen & colleagues seem determined to take that route. <br /><br />Geraldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319994161960244400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-2166216192833770822017-03-04T23:50:17.816-08:002017-03-04T23:50:17.816-08:00Good question. I got this series from FRED: https:...Good question. I got this series from FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS<br /><br />I assume there is a manufacturing-specific deflator. However, this is unlikely to be the driver of why manufacturing output started growing more slowly after 2000. Using the same deflator, real manufacturing output grew quickly before 2000. Also, this wouldn't explain why US manufacturing exports as a share of total world manufacturing exports fell. Doug Campbell https://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-53762972152278659342017-03-04T23:42:57.586-08:002017-03-04T23:42:57.586-08:00I'd say, the Fed's tightening is what has ...I'd say, the Fed's tightening is what has prevented the economy from returning to normal growth. At present, if the Fed simply waits to tighten, the economy is likely to return to a normal growth rate. With tightening, it gets more difficult. Doug Campbell https://www.blogger.com/profile/11028049845008665877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-35537227323801625482017-03-04T17:09:40.684-08:002017-03-04T17:09:40.684-08:00"Time to dust off Bernanke's 'self-in..."Time to dust off Bernanke's 'self-induced paralysis' thesis." If we're already in a self-induced paralysis, what will we be in when the Fed raises rates at its March meeting? A deeper self-induced paralysis maybe??<br />Geraldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319994161960244400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4409551172339639840.post-24892698299020355212017-03-04T15:42:18.865-08:002017-03-04T15:42:18.865-08:00What form of CPI adjustment is used for the real m...What form of CPI adjustment is used for the real manufacturing output? I'm curious because it seems like (just guessing) most manufactured goods are seeing price declines whereas the CPI-U continues to increase (primarily because it's 40+% housing).kczathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14229712671756819821noreply@blogger.com